California home values are rising. Why is Oakland left out?

When David Winkler organized an open house for a home in Albany on a recent Sunday, more than 80 people came to see the property, the East Bay broker said.

That same day, his company held four open houses in Oakland. They got a total of just 11 visitors. One of the homes didn’t get any.

“That’s real evidence something is different (about Oakland),” Winkler said.

The data agrees. Among California’s 20 most populous cities, only Oakland saw its typical home value drop between July and October, according to data from real estate listing site Zillow.

It was a small dip, just 0.2%, from $793,000 to $791,000. But the decline underscores how Oakland isn’t seeing the home value growth many other large California cities are experiencing. Some California cities, like Irvine and San Jose, saw estimated home values grow by more than 5% over this same period.

Oakland’s homes are generally worth more than in California overall, with properties in the city having a typical value of $793,000 in October compared to $746,000 statewide. And homes in the town tend to sell faster, at a median of 21 days compared to the 28 days statewide in September, according to the most recent data available from real estate brokerage site Redfin.

But compared to many of Oakland’s more suburban neighbors, the city’s real estate market has floundered in recent months. The typical home values in Fremont and Dublin rose by 4.2% and 3.9%, respectively, between July and October. And homes in those cities sold in a median of just 10 days in September.

Some neighborhoods are doing better than others. The Claremont and Lincoln Highlands neighborhoods in the Oakland hills, for example, saw home values rise by 2% and 1.4% respectively between July and October. But in many of the areas closer to central Oakland — San Pablo Gateway and the Produce and Waterfront, for example — values fell by between 2% and 3%.

High interest rates are cutting into home values, according to Winkler, the East Bay broker. But pent-up demand usually causes home values to surge again when rates drop — or when buyers get used to the higher costs.

The issue separating Oakland’s housing market from those of other cities like Albany, Winkler believes, is crime. Oakland, which has historically had a much higher crime rate than other California cities, saw jumps in both violent and property crimes after the pandemic began.

More crime, Winkler said, means fewer people want to move to Oakland.

“Some people will accept (the crime), some people won’t,” he added.

It’s also possible falling rental prices are contributing to the city’s less frothy housing market. A large number of new apartment buildings…