Hotel Transaction Volume in 2023 Could Surpass the $48.6 Billion in Total Transaction

Excerpt from CoStar

A majority of Lodging Industry Investment Council members said they expect full-year lodging real estate transactions in 2023 to exceed the volume in 2022.

In a survey conducted at a private roundtable of members, 67% said they believe transactions will be up, while “27% believe the count will be roughly the same and only 6% predict down,” according to Michael Cahill, CEO and founder of national hotel and casino advisory firm Hospitality Real Estate Counselors.

However, it won’t be all sunny skies for every deal, said Jim Butler, founding partner of Los Angeles-based law firm Jeffer Mangels Butler & Mitchell, and founder and chairman of the firm’s Global Hospitality Group.

The 2023 transaction environment is “going to be like in the Midwest on those summer days, when you could be standing on the street and it’d be sunshine here and you’d see the line of rain moving across, and it was rainy and sunny at the same time,” he said ahead of the 2023 Americas Lodging Investment Summit. “We will have more transactions [but] there are a lot of things compressing value.”

Last year, JMBM Global Hospitality Group represented Fertitta Entertainment, owned by Tilman Fertitta, on the bidding, acquisition and closing of the purchase of the Montage Laguna Beach Resort Hotel from China-based Dajia Insurance Group for an undisclosed amount. CoStar data, however, shows the resort sold for $661 million or roughly $2.5 million per room. The hotel was part of the former Strategic Hotels and Resorts portfolio.

Steve Kisielica, principal at Lodging Capital Partners, said hotels at distressed pricing have not significantly hit the market. At the lower end of the market, debt service is staying relatively tame and fundamentals are strong. Then, at the higher end of the market, “you’ve got deep-pocketed investors who can ride through the cycle and sell to folks who [are] going to buy all-cash.”

“We think the distress on the capital market side is going to force sellers [to dispose hotels]; cap rates are going to move up — our forecast is roughly 100 basis points,” Bhojwani said.

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