Mortgage Rate Forecast December 2023
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hikesterson/Getty Images; Illustration by Issiah Davis/Bankrate
After topping 8 percent in October, mortgage rates beat a hasty retreat in November. The average rate on 30-year loans fell under 7.5 percent in Bankrate’s most recent survey of lenders.
“Market sentiment has significantly shifted over the last month, leading to a continued decline in mortgage rates,” says Sam Khater, chief economist at mortgage company Freddie Mac.
One key reason for the reversal: Investors bid down 10-year Treasury yields, the main indicator for 30-year fixed mortgage rates.
Another factor is inflation, which was down to 3.2 percent for October. While that’s still above the Federal Reserve’s official target of 2 percent, forecasters think the Fed is done raising rates, a shift that will relieve some of the pressure on mortgages.
“If the Fed signals an end to interest rate hikes and takes on a dovish tone, there may be some downward pressure on mortgage rates,” says Odeta Kushi, economist at title insurer First American. “But don’t expect any large declines in mortgage rates until inflation is much closer to the Fed’s 2 percent target or there’s a decline in economic activity.”
Mortgage rate predictions December 2023
The downward momentum in mortgage rates will be sustained, albeit modestly, as the Federal Reserve signals they are done raising interest rates and projects slower inflation in 2024. Cautious projections from the Fed about the timing of rate hikes, along with the elevated volume of Treasury issuance, will be offsetting factors that limit the extent of decline in mortgage rates.
— Greg McBride, Bankrate Chief Financial Analyst
Many forecasts now call for rates to stick in the 7 percent range, either at 7.5 or higher.
“While mortgage rates have trended down from their peak in October, they remain above 7 percent and will likely stay there for some time,” says Ruben Gonzalez, chief economist at real estate brokerage Keller Williams.
As inflation cools and the Federal Reserve stands down, rates should drift down to 7 percent, says Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, a real estate listing service in the Mid-Atlantic region.
“Part of it is the Federal Reserve is pausing on interest rate hikes,” says Sturtevant. “Of course, mortgage rates are affected by things other than what the Fed does. For example, mortgage applications are down, and lenders are competing for a shrinking pool of applicants.”
Current mortgage rate trends
After rising sharply through late October, mortgage rates have trended back down. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage was 7.4 percent as of Nov. 29, according to Bankrate’s survey. This represents a departure from 8.01 percent on Oct. 25.
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