Mortgage Rates Today, Jan. 20, & Rate Forecast For Next Week
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Today’s mortgage rates
Average mortgage rates just edged upward yesterday. However, over the last seven days, they’ve risen appreciably. That was mostly down to Wednesday’s retail sales figures, which were much stronger than markets were expecting.
I’m ducking out of giving a prediction for how mortgage rates might move next week. Two economic reports that often move mortgage rates considerably are on the calendar.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
| Program | Mortgage Rate | APR* | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conventional 30-year fixed | 7.03% | 7.05% | +0.03 |
| Conventional 15-year fixed | 6.49% | 6.51% | +0.02 |
| Conventional 20-year fixed | 7.06% | 7.08% | +0.04 |
| Conventional 10-year fixed | 6.21% | 6.24% | +0.07 |
| 30-year fixed FHA | 6.31% | 6.99% | +0.08 |
| 30-year fixed VA | 6.41% | 6.52% | +0.05 |
| 5/1 ARM Conventional | 6.38% | 7.56% | -0.01 |
| Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here. | |||
Should you lock a mortgage rate today?
I’m still hoping and expecting that mortgage rates will slowly glide lower through 2024. The economic omens suggest that’s the most likely scenario.
But there are never guarantees with markets or mortgage rates. And cautious borrowers may prefer to lock their rates sooner than I suggest.
Still, my personal rate lock recommendations are:
- LOCK if closing in 7 days
- FLOAT if closing in 15 days
- FLOAT if closing in 30 days
- FLOAT if closing in 45 days
- FLOAT if closing in 60 days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
What’s moving current mortgage rates
Recently
Everything points to the economy experiencing a “soft landing.” One of those happens when inflation falls without being pressured to do so by a recession.
The ideal situation for someone wanting lower mortgage rates would be lower inflation resulting from a recession. Those rates tend to fall most sharply when the economy is struggling and prices are becoming stable.
But a recession tends to hurt many vulnerable people, including by making millions unemployed. Few of us are sociopaths who would wish that on our fellow Americans, especially as slowing price increases alone should be capable of pushing mortgage rates lower.
But the absence of a recession is likely to mean that those rates fall more slowly than otherwise. That’s why I keep talking about mortgage rates gliding gently lower through 2024.
And it’s why we should expect periods of unexpectedly good economic data to push mortgage rates higher. We’re looking at an overall downward trend that will likely be punctuated by times when they rise.
Next week
GDP
Once again, the economic reports most likely to influence mortgage rates are scheduled for the…
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